Pavlov, LaFontaine in Dead Heat for 2nd place, but 43% Undecided
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Susan J. Demas, IMP Publisher, 517-420-6779, firstname.lastname@example.org Dennis Darnoi, Revsix Analyst, 248-763-3655, email@example.com Amanda Stitt, Change Media CEO, 517-420-2833, firstname.lastname@example.org
State Sen. Jack Brandenburg (R-Harrison Twp.) has jumped to an early lead to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp.) in Republican primary for the 10th Congressional District.
In a three-way matchup, Brandenburg had 27% of the vote, while state Sen. Phil Pavlov (R-St. Clair) and state Rep. Andrea LaFontaine (R-Columbus Twp.) have 15% apiece in a new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Change Media Group poll. But 43% are still undecided.
The poll also tested a seven-way matchup, where Brandenburg (17%), Pavlov (15%) and LaFontaine (12%) were the top three finishers. Brandenburg and Pavlov are in a statistical tie, with LaFontaine not far behind. The other potential candidates tested were: Former state Sen. Alan Sanborn (R-Richmond) with 7%; former Rep. Pete Lund (R-Shelby Twp.) with 5%; state Rep. Todd Courser (R-Lapeer) with 3%; and Clinton Township Clerk Kim Meltzer with 2%. In the seven-way matchup, 41% were undecided.
“Our poll clearly establishes who the three strongest Republican candidates in the M-10 are today: Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov. But with four in 10 voters undecided, this race is still wide open. There’s a path to victory for any of the top three contenders -- but there’s still room for other Republicans to mount a strong campaign and emerge victorious on August 2, 2016,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.
The M-10 encompasses both Detroit suburbs and the more rural “Thumb” area, including Macomb, St. Clair, Lapeer, Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola counties. IMP rates the district as having a 55.3% GOP base, which is why IMP/Revsix/Change Media Group tested the Republican field.
"This poll clearly demonstrates where this race is headed, as well as identifies the strengths and weaknesses that each of the three top campaigns will have to contend with. The people of the 10th Congressional can expect a very long, drawn out and extremely expensive race to succeed Congresswoman Miller," said Dennis Darnoi, Director of Analytics and Research for Revsix.
In the three-way matchup, LaFontaine doesn’t have an advantage with female voters over her male counterparts. In fact, 46% of women are undecided vs. 38% of men.
Looking at geography, Brandenburg’s strength comes from his home county of Macomb, while Pavlov does well in his home county of St. Clair, as well as Sanilac County. LaFontaine is strongest in St. Clair, not her home county of Macomb.
In terms of ideology, no one has emerged as the “conservative candidate,” which can be critical in a GOP primary. All three candidates draw support from all wings of the Republican party (liberal, moderate, conservative and very conservative).
"Senator Brandenburg seems to be in a strong position, but based on the high levels of support from liberal Republicans all the way to very conservative Republicans, much of that is probably based on name recognition in Macomb -- which is the majority of this district. This field has the potential to grow like a Republican Presidential primary field. The larger the field grows, the better chance Representative LaFontaine has of coming out of next August's primary -- especially if she is the only women in the field,” said Amanda Stitt, CEO of Change Media Group.
Revsix (http://revsixdata.com/) is a data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Lansing-based Change Media Group (http://www.changemediagroup.com/) provides digital consulting to candidates, organizations and businesses. IMP (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.
The automated survey of 467 likely 2016 Republican voters in the M-10 was taken on March 29 and 30. The margin of error is 4.5%. Crosstabs are available upon request.
IMP/Revsix/Change Media MI-7 Poll
March 29-30, 2015
INTRO: Hello, I’m calling from Inside Michigan Politics. We are conducting a quick, 5-question survey about the Republican primary to replace Congresswoman Candice Miller, who has decided to retire in 2016. It should only take a moment of your time. The survey is only 5 questions. It’s important that your opinion is heard and your responses are confidential, so let’s get started.
Question 1: How old are you?
Press 1 if you are 18 to 29 1.23%
Press 2 if you are 30 to 45 4.10%
Press 3 if you are 46 to 65 31.97%
Press 4 if you are 66 and older 62.70%
Question 2: What is your gender?
Press 1 for Male 51.36%
Press 2 for Female 48.64%
Question 3: Would you describe yourself as liberal, moderate, conservative or very conservative?
Press 1 if you consider yourself liberal 4.88%
Press 2 if you consider yourself moderate 23.99%
Press 3 if you consider yourself conservative 50.11%
Press 4 if you consider yourself very conservative 21.02%
Question 4: There are several candidates considering running for the seat left open by the retirement of Congresswoman Candice Miller. If the candidates were Alan Sanborn, Phil Pavlov, Andrea LaFontaine, Pete Lund, Kim Meltzer, Jack Brandenburg and Todd Courser, who would you support?
Press 1 for Alan Sanborn 7.1%
Press 2 for Phil Pavlov 14.5%
Press 3 for Andrea LaFontaine 11.9%
Press 4 for Pete Lund 4.5%
Press 5 for Kim Meltzer 1.8%
Press 6 for Jack Brandenburg 16.9%
Press 7 for Todd Courser 2.7%
Press 8 for Undecided 40.6%
Question 5: If the candidates to replace Congresswoman Candice Miller were Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov, who would you support?
Press 1 for Jack Brandenburg 27.2%
Press 2 for Andrea LaFontaine 14.7%
Press 3 for Phil Pavlov 15.1%
Press 4 for Undecided 42.9%