IMP/Target Insyght 2018 MI Governor Poll: Schuette, Miller Locked in Close GOP Race, Duggan Leads Dems, Despite Claim He Won’t Run

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                   Contact: Susan J. Demas, IMP Editor and Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com    Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776, esarpolus@gmail.com

LANSING –– Term-limited Attorney General Bill Schuette and retiring U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp.) are virtually tied in a new poll of the 2018 GOP primary for Michigan governor.

Schuette had 21% and Miller took 20% in an automated survey for Inside Michigan Politics and Target Insyght. Lt. Gov. Brian Calleyhad 11% and state Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof (R-West Olive) had 3%, with 45% of voters undecided.

Gov. Rick Snyder is term-limited and cannot run again in 2018.

“After being such a high-profile partner to Gov. Snyder, you’d think Brian Calley would be running away with the 2018 Republican nomination to succeed him,” said Susan J. Demas, Editor and Publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. “Instead, he’s a distant third to Attorney General Bill Schuette, who’s the top pick of conservative voters, and Candice Miller, the clear choice of establishment GOP voters.”

“Legislative leaders always want to make the leap to statewide office, but I don’t see a path for an Arlan Meekhof victory,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght. “It’s not clear that Candice Miller is running –– but if she does, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.”

In the Democratic primary, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan led with 20%, even though he has said he’s not interested in running in 2018. Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) had 16%, U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) received 12% and Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel had 9%. And 43% of voters were undecided.

“The Democratic nomination is Mike Duggan’s if he wants it –– but for now, he’s insisting that he doesn’t,” Sarpolus said. “Gretchen Whitmer’s aggressive outreach schedule in the last six months has definitely paid off with her second-place finish. But with more than four in 10 voters undecided, anything can happen.”

“Dan Kildee has raised his profile in few months, taking the lead on the Flint water crisis and in getting U.S. veteran Amir Hekmati released from Iran. If Mike Duggan doesn’t run, Kildee is in prime position to capture some of his support in metro Detroit –– which is the key area any Democrat needs to win,” Demas said. “Mark Hackel clearly has the most crossover appeal, but that’s not going to help him win the Democratic primary.”

IMP and Target Insyght automatically polled 400 likely Michigan GOP primary voters and 400 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters from Feb. 2 to 4. Each survey has a margin of error of 5%.

IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Evangelicals Don’t Stop Trump In MI, Holds 14-Point Lead in GOP Primary After Iowa, Clinton Dominates Dem Primary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                 Contact:  Susan J. Demas, IMP Editor and Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com   Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776, esarpolus@gmail.com

LANSING –– Donald Trump has a 14-point lead in the eight-way Michigan GOP primary, according to a poll done after the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses.

Trump is at 35%, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio had 21% apiece in an automated survey for Inside Michigan Politics and Target Insyght. John Kasich had 6% and Ben Carson received 5%. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each had 3%. And 4% are undecided.

Unlike in the Iowa contest, Trump won evangelical voters in the Michigan survey. Trump had 35% to Cruz’s 25% and Rubio’s 19%.

“Rumors of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated,” said Susan J. Demas, Editor and Publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. “As much as people hoped he would fade away after his disappointing second-place finish in Iowa, Trump still holds a double-digit lead in Michigan over his nearest rivals, Cruz and Rubio. Although there’s about a month before the March 8 primary, the Republican establishment has to be concerned that Trump has the most committed voters of any candidate, with 77%.”

“Pundits may joke about Rubio's style, but maybe his fancy boots have caught the attention of women voters and young voters, because he’s doing very well with them in Michigan. He’s new and not old establishment to them,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 32-point lead over Bernie Sanders, 62% to 30%, with 7% undecided.

“Women of all ages in Michigan are standing behind Clinton right now,” Sarpolus said. “Sanders has a major hill to climb by March 8th. He didn't get an Iowa bounce.”

“Michigan Democrats don’t seem impressed that Sanders defied expectations and almost tied Clinton in Iowa,” said Demas. “Even if he scores big in the New Hampshire primary next week, as expected, Michigan still looks to be tough sledding. And 76% of Clinton’s voters here already say they’re committed, while only 53% of Sanders voters do.”

IMP and Target Insyght automatically polled 400 likely Michigan GOP primary voters and 400 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters from Feb. 2 to 4. Each survey has a margin of error of 5%.

New Poll: Cindy Gamrat Running Second in Special Election for 80th District

Disgraced ex-Representative trails past candidate Mary Whiteford, in statistical tie with Jim Storey

Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com       Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776, esarpolus@gmail.com Joshua Pugh, Grassroots Midwest Director of Communications Strategy, 517-575-7180, josh@grassrootsmidwest.com                                           

According to a new poll released today by Grassroots Midwest, Inside Michigan Politics, and Target Insyght, former nurse and financial consulting firm co-founder Mary Whiteford has a commanding early lead in the special election in Michigan’s 80th House District to fill the vacant seat of ex-Rep. Cindy Gamrat (R-Plainwell). Whiteford holds the support of 31 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Gamrat is in second with 14 percent. Allegan County Commissioner and GOP operative Jim Storey is just behind Gamrat with 13 percent.

Interestingly, 18 percent of Republican primary voters would support the eventual Democratic nominee over Cindy Gamrat if she were to somehow sneak through the Republican primary field, while 61 percent would support another candidate or simply stay home rather than cast a general election vote for Gamrat to return her the state House.

Gamrat has a favorability rating of 19 percent. Asked what a proper punishment would have been for Gamrat's admitted inappropriate use of state resources, 22 percent said expulsion, and 49 percent said she should have resigned.

"The endorsements of the Great Lakes Education Project and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce have put Mary Whiteford in the catbird's seat headed into the final weeks of the election. For all the talk of a split in the Republican establishment, Jim Storey is still polling slightly below Cindy Gamrat," said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.

Michigan’s 80th District encompasses all of Allegan County, except three townships and the city of Wayland in the northwest. The district has a Republican base of 62 percent, according to Target Insyght data.

"The establishment strikes back as Whiteford and Storey have all the momentum rolling into the special election," said Brian Began, Elections & Research Director of Grassroots Midwest. "It doesn’t appear anyone is buying Gamrat’s victim act, and the force that was the Tea Party is no longer strong with her. Despite early fears that a comeback was possible, it appears those fears will not be realized, as Gamrat quickly fades into obscurity. Gamrat has become just another also-ran in this race. She may pop up from time to time in future debates, but her fifteen minutes is ultimately over."

"Much like Todd Courser, Cindy Gamrat's constituents just plain don't like her," said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght. "There is a complete lack of sympathy among Republican primary voters for the alleged persecution Gamrat has been through. Gamrat is able to garner the support of a strong majority of the Republicans who say they like her -- there just aren't nearly enough of them."

This automated survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan’s 80th state House district was taken October 6 - 8. The margin of error is 5.7 percent. Crosstabs and demographic data are available upon request.

________________________________________________________________________________

IMP (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

Grassroots Midwest (http://grassrootsmidwest.com) is Michigan's first and only bipartisan grassroots advocacy firm. Our clients include corporations, associations, non-profits, labor unions, and political candidates, and we have a relentless focus on one outcome for our clients: winning.

Target Insyght (http://target-insyght.com) is a strategic consulting, public opinion and market research firm created to offer its clients a full spectrum of professional capabilities.

New Poll: Todd Courser Running Third in Historic Special Election

Disgraced ex-Representative trails candidate Jan Peabody, school board President Gary Howell

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                     Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779susan@sjdemas.com  Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776esarpolus@gmail.com      Joshua Pugh, Grassroots Midwest Director of Communications Strategy, 517-575-7180,josh@grassrootsmidwest.com 

According to a new poll released today by Grassroots Midwest, Inside Michigan Politics, and Target Insyght, Jan Peabody has a narrow early lead in the special election in Michigan’s 82nd House District to fill the vacant seat of ex-Rep. Todd Courser (R-Silverwood), holding the support of 20 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Courser is tied for third with Ian Kempf, with 9 percent. Lapeer County ISD board President Gary Howell is second with 11 percent.

Interestingly, 21 percent of Republican primary voters would support the eventual Democratic nominee over Todd Courser, while 47 percent would support another candidate or simply stay home, should Courser secure the Republican nomination.

Courser has a favorability rating of 19 percent, yet fewer than half of respondents who view him favorably would vote for him.

“The Republican establishment has to be thrilled with these results,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics“Tea Party voters are splitting their support between multiple candidates, leaving Jan Peabody alone in first just 30 days out. She’ll have the resources to increase that lead. Peabody came within 300 votes of Courser in the 2014 primary, and already has the support of the Dick DeVos-backed Great Lakes Education Project. I’d look for more big endorsements soon.”

Michigan’s 82nd District encompasses all of Lapeer County, and has a Republican base of 58 percent,  according to Target Insyght data. Because of this, conventional wisdom would suggest that the Republican candidate, whomever he or she should be, will safely win the general election.

However, should Todd Courser somehow defy the odds and sneak through the 11-way Republican primary, Lapeer County Republicans might have second thoughts and take their chance to make history, either by supporting the Democratic nominee or staying home next March.

“Much like the residents of Elm Street and the Campers at Crystal Lake, the Lapeer County Courser monster just won’t go away. It’s the sequel nobody wanted, and it’s coming to a ballot box near you this November,” said Brian Began, Elections & Research Director of Grassroots Midwest. “This is not a conventional primary, but a 30-day sprint. Courser has a steep climb, but should he convince enough of his allies to support him in November, Republicans could again be dealing with a nightmare scenario.”

"The good news for Todd Courser is that everyone's heard of him -- 95% name ID for a former state rep. is unheard of. The very bad news is that no one likes him,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght. “Courser relentlessly courted media coverage during the scandal, releasing colorful Facebook posts and doing national TV. It's clear that all the attention has come with a price -- Courser now looks unelectable in this field."

Based on analysis of historical data, Grassroots Midwest believes 13,500 will likely vote in the GOP primary -- meaning a candidate could win with as few as 2,000 votes. Between Courser’s loyalists, mischievous Democrats, and the other ten Republican candidates, the risk of Courser sneaking through the November primary seems realistic, if only he could convince more people who like him to actually vote for him. There is clearly a risk of a nightmare scenario for the GOP in this race.

This automated survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan’s 82nd state House district was taken September 29-October 1. The margin of error is 5.7 percent. Crosstabs and demographic data are available upon request.

________________________________________________________________________________

Inside Michigan Politics (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

Grassroots Midwest (http://grassrootsmidwest.com) is Michigan's first and only bipartisan grassroots advocacy firm. Our clients include corporations, associations, non-profits, labor unions, and political candidates, and we have a relentless focus on one outcome for our clients: winning.

Target Insyght (http://target-insyght.com) is a strategic consulting, public opinion and market research firm created to offer its clients a full spectrum of professional capabilities.

Brandenburg Out to Early Lead in Three-Way Matchup in New ​Inside Michigan Politics/ Revsix/Change Media Group MI-10 GOP Primary Poll

Pavlov, LaFontaine in Dead Heat for 2nd place, but 43% Undecided

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                     Contact: Susan J. DemasIMP Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com                Dennis Darnoi, Revsix Analyst, 248-763-3655, dennis.darnoi@revsixdata.com            Amanda Stitt, Change Media CEO, 517-420-2833,  amanda@changemediagroup.com

State Sen. Jack Brandenburg (R-Harrison Twp.) has jumped to an early lead to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp.) in Republican primary for the 10th Congressional District.

In a three-way matchup, Brandenburg had 27% of the vote, while state Sen. Phil Pavlov (R-St. Clair) and state Rep. Andrea LaFontaine (R-Columbus Twp.) have 15% apiece in a new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Change Media Group poll. But 43% are still undecided.

The poll also tested a seven-way matchup, where Brandenburg (17%), Pavlov (15%) and LaFontaine (12%) were the top three finishers. Brandenburg and Pavlov are in a statistical tie, with LaFontaine not far behind. The other potential candidates tested were: Former state Sen. Alan Sanborn (R-Richmond) with 7%; former Rep. Pete Lund (R-Shelby Twp.) with 5%; state Rep. Todd Courser (R-Lapeer) with 3%; and Clinton Township Clerk Kim Meltzer with 2%. In the seven-way matchup, 41% were undecided.

“Our poll clearly establishes who the three strongest Republican candidates in the M-10 are today: Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov. But with four in 10 voters undecided, this race is still wide open. There’s a path to victory for any of the top three contenders -- but there’s still room for other Republicans to mount a strong campaign and emerge victorious on August 2, 2016,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.

The M-10 encompasses both Detroit suburbs and the more rural “Thumb” area, including Macomb, St. Clair, Lapeer, Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola counties. IMP rates the district as having a 55.3% GOP base, which is why IMP/Revsix/Change Media Group tested the Republican field.

"This poll clearly demonstrates where this race is headed, as well as identifies the strengths and weaknesses that each of the three top campaigns will have to contend with. The people of the 10th Congressional can expect a very long, drawn out and extremely expensive race to succeed Congresswoman Miller," said Dennis Darnoi, Director of Analytics and Research for Revsix.

In the three-way matchup, LaFontaine doesn’t have an advantage with female voters over her male counterparts. In fact, 46% of women are undecided vs. 38% of men.

Looking at geography, Brandenburg’s strength comes from his home county of Macomb, while Pavlov does well in his home county of St. Clair, as well as Sanilac County. LaFontaine is strongest in St. Clair, not her home county of Macomb.

In terms of ideology, no one has emerged as the “conservative candidate,” which can be critical in a GOP primary. All three candidates draw support from all wings of the Republican party (liberal, moderate, conservative and very conservative).

"Senator Brandenburg seems to be in a strong position, but based on the high levels of support from liberal Republicans all the way to very conservative Republicans, much of that is probably based on name recognition in Macomb -- which is the majority of this district. This field has the potential to grow like a Republican Presidential primary field. The larger the field grows, the better chance Representative LaFontaine has of coming out of next August's primary -- especially if she is the only women in the field,” said Amanda Stitt, CEO of Change Media Group.

Revsix (http://revsixdata.com/) is a data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Lansing-based Change Media Group (http://www.changemediagroup.com/) provides digital consulting to candidates, organizations and businesses. IMP (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

The automated survey of 467 likely 2016 Republican voters in the M-10 was taken on March 29 and 30. The margin of error is 4.5%. Crosstabs are available upon request.

 

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IMP/Revsix/Change Media MI-7 Poll   

March 29-30, 2015

 

INTRO:    Hello, I’m calling from Inside Michigan Politics.  We are conducting a quick, 5-question survey about the Republican primary to replace Congresswoman Candice Miller, who has decided to retire in 2016.  It should only take a moment of your time. The survey is only 5 questions. It’s important that your opinion is heard and your responses are confidential, so let’s get started.

 

Question 1:    How old are you?      

Press 1 if you are 18 to 29                          1.23%

 Press 2 if you are 30 to 45                         4.10%

 Press 3 if you are 46 to 65                         31.97%

 Press 4 if you are 66 and older                  62.70%

 

Question 2:    What is your gender?    

Press 1 for Male                        51.36%

Press 2 for Female                    48.64%        

 

Question 3:    Would you describe yourself as liberal, moderate, conservative or very conservative?

Press 1 if you consider yourself liberal                    4.88%

Press 2 if you consider yourself moderate              23.99%

Press 3 if you consider yourself conservative         50.11%

Press 4 if you consider yourself very conservative  21.02%

 

Question 4:     There are several candidates considering running for the seat left open by the retirement of Congresswoman Candice Miller.  If the candidates were Alan Sanborn, Phil Pavlov, Andrea LaFontaine, Pete Lund, Kim Meltzer, Jack Brandenburg and Todd Courser, who would you support?

Press 1 for Alan Sanborn               7.1%

Press 2 for Phil Pavlov                 14.5%

Press 3 for Andrea LaFontaine    11.9%

Press 4 for Pete Lund                    4.5%

Press 5 for Kim Meltzer                 1.8%

Press 6 for Jack Brandenburg       16.9%

Press 7 for Todd Courser               2.7%

Press 8 for Undecided                   40.6%

 

Question 5:     If the candidates to replace Congresswoman Candice Miller were Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov, who would you support?

Press 1 for Jack Brandenburg            27.2%

Press 2 for Andrea LaFontaine          14.7%

Press 3 for Phil Pavlov                       15.1%

Press 4 for Undecided                        42.9%

Democrat Driskell Edges Incumbent Walberg in New Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/ Change Media MI-7 Poll

By Susan Demas

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                         Contact: Susan J. Demas, IMP Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com                     Dennis Darnoi, Revsix Analyst, 248-763-3655, dennis.darnoi@revsixdata.com                 Amanda Stitt, Change Media CEO, 517-420-2833, Amanda@changemediagroup.com

 

State Rep. Gretchen Driskell (D-Saline) would oust U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) if the 7th Congressional District election were held today.

Driskell, who announced last month she would run in 2016,  holds a 5-point lead over Walberg, which is just within the margin of error, in a new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Change Media poll. Driskell had 42% and Walberg had 37%, with 21% undecided.

The survey was +6 Republican -- 30% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 34% Independents. IMP rates the district as having a 52.4% GOP base.

“The results are somewhat surprising, given the fact that Tim Walberg is a well-established, four-term incumbent, and Gretchen Driskell is unknown in big swaths of the district. But Walberg has faced tough elections before, and he’s been able to count on help from big-name groups like Club for Growth,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.

The MI-7 is in south-central Michigan, encompassing Hillsdale, Lenawee, Branch, Jackson, Eaton, Monroe and Washtenaw counties.

"In the next Congress, Tim Walberg stands to be the second most senior Republican in the Michigan delegation and its a safe bet that he will use every advantage of incumbency to get re-elected. Yet, these numbers show what astute political observers already know, namely Michigan's 7th Congressional District can be a competitive battleground. In a presidential year, and with the right candidate and the right strategy, Democrats have a real opportunity to win this seat,” said Dennis Darnoi, Director of Analytics and Research for Revsix.

Driskell’s main advantage is with Independents, which she won 46% to Walberg’s 27%. Both candidates won 66% of their respective party bases.

"The 7th district has a large block of independent voters, and Driskell is in a strong position with these voters.  While this may seem surprising, Driskell has an advantage because she has not had significant funds spent attacking her, and is helped by her standing as a former mayor of Saline. The odd dynamic in this district is that there is a large block of sporadic voting independents and a significant likely voting conservative base making this one of the most volatile districts in the country," said Amanda Stitt, CEO of Change Media Group.

IMP/Revsix/Change Media also polled a rematch between Walberg and his 2014 opponent, former Rep. Pam Byrnes (D-Lyndon Twp.). The incumbent held a 5-point lead against Byrnes, 43%-38%, with 19% undecided.

Revsix is a data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Lansing-based Change Media provides digital consulting to candidates, organizations and businesses. IMP is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

The automated survey of 422 likely 2016 general election voters in the MI-7 was done on March 13 through 16 and has a margin of error of 5%. Full questions are below.

________________________________________________________________________________

IMP/Revsix/Change Media MI-7 Poll   

March 13-16, 2015

Hello, I am conducting a brief survey for Inside Michigan Politics, Michigan’s premier political newsletter. Your responses are confidential. This survey should only take two minutes of your time and your opinions are important. So let’s get started.

1) Are you planning on voting in the November 2016 General Election for President and U.S. Congress?  

Press 1 for Yes        96%

Press 2 for No               4%    (TERMINATE IF NO)

2)  In the race for the 7th Congressional District, if the Democratic candidate for Congress was Democrat Gretchen Driskell and the Republican was Tim Walberg, who would you support?  

Press 1 for Driskell        42.0%

Press 2 for Walberg         37.1%

Press 3 for undecided        20.9%

4) In the race for the 7th Congressional District, if the Democratic candidate for Congress was Pam Byrnes and the Republican was Tim Walberg, who would you support?  

Press 1 for Byrnes        38.0%

Press 2 for Walberg        42.6%

Press 3 for undecided        19.4%

IMP/LE&A/Denno Research Poll: Majority of Michigan Voters Say Gov. Rick Snyder Has Cut K-12 Education Funding

By Susan Demas                                                                                                                      

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                   Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com        T.J. Bucholz, Lambert, Edwards & Associates, 517-316-0210, tjbucholz@lambert-edwards.com

 

LANSING - The majority of Michigan voters say Gov. Rick Snyder has decreased funding for K-12 schools in the last three years, according to a new Inside Michigan Politics/Lambert, Edwards & Associates/Denno Research poll.

By an almost 3:1 margin -- 53.8% to 18% -- voters said that the Republican governor has cut spending. 24% were undecided.

Education funding has emerged as a battleground issue in the 2014 election, particularly the governor's race. While Democrats and likely gubernatorial nominee Mark Schauer have argued that per-pupil spending has been cut over the last three years, Republicans and Snyder have countered that total spending on schools has ticked up.

Here is the question:

In the three years that Governor Rick Snyder has been in office, do you think he overall has increased or decreased spending for K-12 schools? (Respondents were given two options: Increased or Decreased).

"Over the past few months, Republicans and Democrats have been engaged in serious battle about education spending -- Republicans - led by Gov. Snyder -- argue that the total dollars going into K-12 schools have increased, while Dems believe the foundation allowance - or the money used to primarily fund classroom operations - has been cut," said T.J. Bucholz, senior director of public affairs for Lambert, Edwards & Associates. "The truth on this issue is that both sides are right. Opinion polls like ours, however, don't measure truth, but what people believe at a single point in time."

There is a big partisan divide, with 48.1% of Republicans saying the governor increased education funding and just 19.8% responding that he decreased spending. The numbers are virtually reversed for Democrats, with 23.1% saying Snyder increased school spending and 52% responding that he decreased spending. Independents were split, with 25% saying the governor increased spending and 23.2% saying he decreased funding, which is within the poll's margin of error.

And 69% of respondents who said Snyder has decreased education spending were ages 35 to 64, the age block in which people are most likely to have school-aged children.

"The issue comes down to whether people believe money is getting into the classroom. And this poll indicates parents of school-aged children don't believe Gov. Snyder's narrative that schools are seeing more money," said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. "Republicans have clearly done their own polling on this issue and realize it's a weakness in the election. That's why they're looking to up education spending in this year's budget."

Lambert, Edwards & Associates, named the 2010 PRWeek Small Agency of the Year, is a top-10 Midwest-based PR firm and a top-20 investor relations firm nationally with clients based in 20 states and five countries. Denno Research polls for political campaigns, corporations, associations and non-profit organizations, and have worked with clients in Michigan, Indiana, New York, North Carolina and New Jersey. IMP is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

The live-operator survey was of 600 likely Michigan voters was taken March 8 and 9. 20% of respondents were cell phone users. The margin of error is 4%. Crosstabs are available upon request.

IMP/Revsix/Mainstreet Strategies Poll: Debbie Dingell Holds Commanding Lead over All Democratic Challengers in MI-12

By Susan Demas

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                   Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com Dennis Darnoi, Revsix Analyst, 248-763-3655

 

Dingell Defeats State Sen. Rebekah Warren by a More than 2:1 Margin in Head-to-Head Matchup

LANSING - Wayne State University Board of Governors Chair Debbie Dingell won an outright majority in a five-way matchup tested in new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Mainstreet Strategies poll of the 12th Congressional District.

Dingell had 51.1% in an automated survey of 813 likely Democratic primary voters taken on February 26 and 27. The poll is the first released since Dingell's husband, 30-term U.S. Rep. John Dingell (D-Dearborn), announced his retirement this week.

The runner-up in the poll was state Sen. Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor), who had 15.7%. The three other candidates tested were virtually tied. State Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D-Taylor) earned 4.4% and state Rep. Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor) had 3.5% and state Rep. Doug Geiss (D-Taylor) had 2.3%. The undecided vote was at 23%.

The poll also tested a head-to-head matchup between Dingell and Warren, the top two contenders. Dingell won 55.9% and Warren took 21.6%, with 22.5% undecided.

"The depth and strength of support for Debbie Dingell is very impressive," said Dennis Darnoi, analyst for Revsix. "It cuts across all demographic and geographic lines. Whether Debbie Dingell faces a crowded primary or just one opponent, baring some monumental surprise, the data supports the popular wisdom that it is her seat to lose."

The MI-12 represents parts of Wayne and Washtenaw counties, including Dearborn, Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti and Taylor. The district has a 66% Democratic base, so the winner of the August 5 Democratic primary is favored to take the seat.

"Without a drastic series of events, it's difficult to see how any candidate catches up to Debbie Dingell," said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. "Mrs. Dingell has been a constant presence in the district for four decades, which this poll reflects, and she will be a prodigious fundraiser. But as the frontrunner, she also becomes the primary target for attacks."

Revsix is a Republican data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Mainstreet Strategies is a Democratic consulting firm in Lansing that has done polling in the 2014 U.S. Senate, the 2014 governor's and 2013 Detroit mayor's races. IMP is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

The poll's margin of error is 3.4%. Full questions and results follow. Crosstabs are available upon request.

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IMP/Main Street Strategies/Revsix CD 12 Poll

February 26-27, 2014

Hello, I am calling from Main Street Strategies & Revsix. We are conducting a public opinion survey.  Your responses are private and will not be shared with any entity.  Your opinion is important.  So let's get started.

Q1)  Are you planning on voting in this August's Democratic Primary for Congress?  

Yes                                                         91.86%                                    

No                                                            9.75%                                                            

Q2) How old are you?

18 to 29 years old                                  4.26%                                         

30 to 44 years old                                  8.32.%                                       

45 to 64 years old                                 33.67%                                       

Older than 65                                        53.75%       

Q3) Where do you live?

Washtenaw County                                41.75%

Wayne County                                        58.25%

Q4) As you may have heard, Congressman John Dingell has decided to retire. In the race to replace him, would you vote Debbie Dingell, Rebekah Warren, Jeff Irwin, Doug Geiss or Hoon-Yung Hopgood?

Debbie Dingell                                          51.13%

Rebekah Warren                                     15.68%

Jeff Irwin                                                   3.48%

Doug Geiss                                                2.33%

Hoon-Young Hopgood                              4.38%

Undecided                                                23.00%

Q5) In a head-to-head race between Debbie Dingell and Rebekah Warren, who would you support?

Debbie Dingell                                          55.93%

Rebekah Warren                                      21.59%

Undecided                                                22.48%