IMP/Revsix/Mainstreet Strategies Poll: Debbie Dingell Holds Commanding Lead over All Democratic Challengers in MI-12

By Susan Demas

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                   Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com Dennis Darnoi, Revsix Analyst, 248-763-3655

 

Dingell Defeats State Sen. Rebekah Warren by a More than 2:1 Margin in Head-to-Head Matchup

LANSING - Wayne State University Board of Governors Chair Debbie Dingell won an outright majority in a five-way matchup tested in new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Mainstreet Strategies poll of the 12th Congressional District.

Dingell had 51.1% in an automated survey of 813 likely Democratic primary voters taken on February 26 and 27. The poll is the first released since Dingell's husband, 30-term U.S. Rep. John Dingell (D-Dearborn), announced his retirement this week.

The runner-up in the poll was state Sen. Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor), who had 15.7%. The three other candidates tested were virtually tied. State Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D-Taylor) earned 4.4% and state Rep. Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor) had 3.5% and state Rep. Doug Geiss (D-Taylor) had 2.3%. The undecided vote was at 23%.

The poll also tested a head-to-head matchup between Dingell and Warren, the top two contenders. Dingell won 55.9% and Warren took 21.6%, with 22.5% undecided.

"The depth and strength of support for Debbie Dingell is very impressive," said Dennis Darnoi, analyst for Revsix. "It cuts across all demographic and geographic lines. Whether Debbie Dingell faces a crowded primary or just one opponent, baring some monumental surprise, the data supports the popular wisdom that it is her seat to lose."

The MI-12 represents parts of Wayne and Washtenaw counties, including Dearborn, Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti and Taylor. The district has a 66% Democratic base, so the winner of the August 5 Democratic primary is favored to take the seat.

"Without a drastic series of events, it's difficult to see how any candidate catches up to Debbie Dingell," said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. "Mrs. Dingell has been a constant presence in the district for four decades, which this poll reflects, and she will be a prodigious fundraiser. But as the frontrunner, she also becomes the primary target for attacks."

Revsix is a Republican data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Mainstreet Strategies is a Democratic consulting firm in Lansing that has done polling in the 2014 U.S. Senate, the 2014 governor's and 2013 Detroit mayor's races. IMP is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

The poll's margin of error is 3.4%. Full questions and results follow. Crosstabs are available upon request.

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IMP/Main Street Strategies/Revsix CD 12 Poll

February 26-27, 2014

Hello, I am calling from Main Street Strategies & Revsix. We are conducting a public opinion survey.  Your responses are private and will not be shared with any entity.  Your opinion is important.  So let's get started.

Q1)  Are you planning on voting in this August's Democratic Primary for Congress?  

Yes                                                         91.86%                                    

No                                                            9.75%                                                            

Q2) How old are you?

18 to 29 years old                                  4.26%                                         

30 to 44 years old                                  8.32.%                                       

45 to 64 years old                                 33.67%                                       

Older than 65                                        53.75%       

Q3) Where do you live?

Washtenaw County                                41.75%

Wayne County                                        58.25%

Q4) As you may have heard, Congressman John Dingell has decided to retire. In the race to replace him, would you vote Debbie Dingell, Rebekah Warren, Jeff Irwin, Doug Geiss or Hoon-Yung Hopgood?

Debbie Dingell                                          51.13%

Rebekah Warren                                     15.68%

Jeff Irwin                                                   3.48%

Doug Geiss                                                2.33%

Hoon-Young Hopgood                              4.38%

Undecided                                                23.00%

Q5) In a head-to-head race between Debbie Dingell and Rebekah Warren, who would you support?

Debbie Dingell                                          55.93%

Rebekah Warren                                      21.59%

Undecided                                                22.48%