LANSING –– Donald Trump has a 14-point lead in the eight-way Michigan GOP primary, according to a poll done after the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses.
Trump is at 35%, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio had 21% apiece in an automated survey for Inside Michigan Politics and Target Insyght. John Kasich had 6% and Ben Carson received 5%. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each had 3%. And 4% are undecided.
Unlike in the Iowa contest, Trump won evangelical voters in the Michigan survey. Trump had 35% to Cruz’s 25% and Rubio’s 19%.
“Rumors of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated,” said Susan J. Demas, Editor and Publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. “As much as people hoped he would fade away after his disappointing second-place finish in Iowa, Trump still holds a double-digit lead in Michigan over his nearest rivals, Cruz and Rubio. Although there’s about a month before the March 8 primary, the Republican establishment has to be concerned that Trump has the most committed voters of any candidate, with 77%.”
“Pundits may joke about Rubio's style, but maybe his fancy boots have caught the attention of women voters and young voters, because he’s doing very well with them in Michigan. He’s new and not old establishment to them,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 32-point lead over Bernie Sanders, 62% to 30%, with 7% undecided.
“Women of all ages in Michigan are standing behind Clinton right now,” Sarpolus said. “Sanders has a major hill to climb by March 8th. He didn't get an Iowa bounce.”
“Michigan Democrats don’t seem impressed that Sanders defied expectations and almost tied Clinton in Iowa,” said Demas. “Even if he scores big in the New Hampshire primary next week, as expected, Michigan still looks to be tough sledding. And 76% of Clinton’s voters here already say they’re committed, while only 53% of Sanders voters do.”
IMP and Target Insyght automatically polled 400 likely Michigan GOP primary voters and 400 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters from Feb. 2 to 4. Each survey has a margin of error of 5%.