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IMP/Target Insyght 2018 MI Governor Poll: Schuette, Miller Locked in Close GOP Race, Duggan Leads Dems, Despite Claim He Won’t Run

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                   Contact: Susan J. Demas, IMP Editor and Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com    Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776, esarpolus@gmail.com

LANSING –– Term-limited Attorney General Bill Schuette and retiring U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp.) are virtually tied in a new poll of the 2018 GOP primary for Michigan governor.

Schuette had 21% and Miller took 20% in an automated survey for Inside Michigan Politics and Target Insyght. Lt. Gov. Brian Calleyhad 11% and state Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof (R-West Olive) had 3%, with 45% of voters undecided.

Gov. Rick Snyder is term-limited and cannot run again in 2018.

“After being such a high-profile partner to Gov. Snyder, you’d think Brian Calley would be running away with the 2018 Republican nomination to succeed him,” said Susan J. Demas, Editor and Publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. “Instead, he’s a distant third to Attorney General Bill Schuette, who’s the top pick of conservative voters, and Candice Miller, the clear choice of establishment GOP voters.”

“Legislative leaders always want to make the leap to statewide office, but I don’t see a path for an Arlan Meekhof victory,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght. “It’s not clear that Candice Miller is running –– but if she does, she’ll be a force to be reckoned with.”

In the Democratic primary, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan led with 20%, even though he has said he’s not interested in running in 2018. Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) had 16%, U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) received 12% and Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel had 9%. And 43% of voters were undecided.

“The Democratic nomination is Mike Duggan’s if he wants it –– but for now, he’s insisting that he doesn’t,” Sarpolus said. “Gretchen Whitmer’s aggressive outreach schedule in the last six months has definitely paid off with her second-place finish. But with more than four in 10 voters undecided, anything can happen.”

“Dan Kildee has raised his profile in few months, taking the lead on the Flint water crisis and in getting U.S. veteran Amir Hekmati released from Iran. If Mike Duggan doesn’t run, Kildee is in prime position to capture some of his support in metro Detroit –– which is the key area any Democrat needs to win,” Demas said. “Mark Hackel clearly has the most crossover appeal, but that’s not going to help him win the Democratic primary.”

IMP and Target Insyght automatically polled 400 likely Michigan GOP primary voters and 400 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters from Feb. 2 to 4. Each survey has a margin of error of 5%.

IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Evangelicals Don’t Stop Trump In MI, Holds 14-Point Lead in GOP Primary After Iowa, Clinton Dominates Dem Primary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                 Contact:  Susan J. Demas, IMP Editor and Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com   Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776, esarpolus@gmail.com

LANSING –– Donald Trump has a 14-point lead in the eight-way Michigan GOP primary, according to a poll done after the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses.

Trump is at 35%, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio had 21% apiece in an automated survey for Inside Michigan Politics and Target Insyght. John Kasich had 6% and Ben Carson received 5%. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each had 3%. And 4% are undecided.

Unlike in the Iowa contest, Trump won evangelical voters in the Michigan survey. Trump had 35% to Cruz’s 25% and Rubio’s 19%.

“Rumors of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated,” said Susan J. Demas, Editor and Publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. “As much as people hoped he would fade away after his disappointing second-place finish in Iowa, Trump still holds a double-digit lead in Michigan over his nearest rivals, Cruz and Rubio. Although there’s about a month before the March 8 primary, the Republican establishment has to be concerned that Trump has the most committed voters of any candidate, with 77%.”

“Pundits may joke about Rubio's style, but maybe his fancy boots have caught the attention of women voters and young voters, because he’s doing very well with them in Michigan. He’s new and not old establishment to them,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 32-point lead over Bernie Sanders, 62% to 30%, with 7% undecided.

“Women of all ages in Michigan are standing behind Clinton right now,” Sarpolus said. “Sanders has a major hill to climb by March 8th. He didn't get an Iowa bounce.”

“Michigan Democrats don’t seem impressed that Sanders defied expectations and almost tied Clinton in Iowa,” said Demas. “Even if he scores big in the New Hampshire primary next week, as expected, Michigan still looks to be tough sledding. And 76% of Clinton’s voters here already say they’re committed, while only 53% of Sanders voters do.”

IMP and Target Insyght automatically polled 400 likely Michigan GOP primary voters and 400 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters from Feb. 2 to 4. Each survey has a margin of error of 5%.