courser

New Poll: Cindy Gamrat Running Second in Special Election for 80th District

Disgraced ex-Representative trails past candidate Mary Whiteford, in statistical tie with Jim Storey

Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com       Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776, esarpolus@gmail.com Joshua Pugh, Grassroots Midwest Director of Communications Strategy, 517-575-7180, josh@grassrootsmidwest.com                                           

According to a new poll released today by Grassroots Midwest, Inside Michigan Politics, and Target Insyght, former nurse and financial consulting firm co-founder Mary Whiteford has a commanding early lead in the special election in Michigan’s 80th House District to fill the vacant seat of ex-Rep. Cindy Gamrat (R-Plainwell). Whiteford holds the support of 31 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Gamrat is in second with 14 percent. Allegan County Commissioner and GOP operative Jim Storey is just behind Gamrat with 13 percent.

Interestingly, 18 percent of Republican primary voters would support the eventual Democratic nominee over Cindy Gamrat if she were to somehow sneak through the Republican primary field, while 61 percent would support another candidate or simply stay home rather than cast a general election vote for Gamrat to return her the state House.

Gamrat has a favorability rating of 19 percent. Asked what a proper punishment would have been for Gamrat's admitted inappropriate use of state resources, 22 percent said expulsion, and 49 percent said she should have resigned.

"The endorsements of the Great Lakes Education Project and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce have put Mary Whiteford in the catbird's seat headed into the final weeks of the election. For all the talk of a split in the Republican establishment, Jim Storey is still polling slightly below Cindy Gamrat," said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.

Michigan’s 80th District encompasses all of Allegan County, except three townships and the city of Wayland in the northwest. The district has a Republican base of 62 percent, according to Target Insyght data.

"The establishment strikes back as Whiteford and Storey have all the momentum rolling into the special election," said Brian Began, Elections & Research Director of Grassroots Midwest. "It doesn’t appear anyone is buying Gamrat’s victim act, and the force that was the Tea Party is no longer strong with her. Despite early fears that a comeback was possible, it appears those fears will not be realized, as Gamrat quickly fades into obscurity. Gamrat has become just another also-ran in this race. She may pop up from time to time in future debates, but her fifteen minutes is ultimately over."

"Much like Todd Courser, Cindy Gamrat's constituents just plain don't like her," said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght. "There is a complete lack of sympathy among Republican primary voters for the alleged persecution Gamrat has been through. Gamrat is able to garner the support of a strong majority of the Republicans who say they like her -- there just aren't nearly enough of them."

This automated survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan’s 80th state House district was taken October 6 - 8. The margin of error is 5.7 percent. Crosstabs and demographic data are available upon request.

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IMP (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

Grassroots Midwest (http://grassrootsmidwest.com) is Michigan's first and only bipartisan grassroots advocacy firm. Our clients include corporations, associations, non-profits, labor unions, and political candidates, and we have a relentless focus on one outcome for our clients: winning.

Target Insyght (http://target-insyght.com) is a strategic consulting, public opinion and market research firm created to offer its clients a full spectrum of professional capabilities.

New Poll: Todd Courser Running Third in Historic Special Election

Disgraced ex-Representative trails candidate Jan Peabody, school board President Gary Howell

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                     Contact:                                                                                                                                       Susan J. Demas, Inside Michigan Politics Publisher, 517-420-6779susan@sjdemas.com  Ed Sarpolus, Target Insyght Executive Director, 517-927-9776esarpolus@gmail.com      Joshua Pugh, Grassroots Midwest Director of Communications Strategy, 517-575-7180,josh@grassrootsmidwest.com 

According to a new poll released today by Grassroots Midwest, Inside Michigan Politics, and Target Insyght, Jan Peabody has a narrow early lead in the special election in Michigan’s 82nd House District to fill the vacant seat of ex-Rep. Todd Courser (R-Silverwood), holding the support of 20 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Courser is tied for third with Ian Kempf, with 9 percent. Lapeer County ISD board President Gary Howell is second with 11 percent.

Interestingly, 21 percent of Republican primary voters would support the eventual Democratic nominee over Todd Courser, while 47 percent would support another candidate or simply stay home, should Courser secure the Republican nomination.

Courser has a favorability rating of 19 percent, yet fewer than half of respondents who view him favorably would vote for him.

“The Republican establishment has to be thrilled with these results,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics“Tea Party voters are splitting their support between multiple candidates, leaving Jan Peabody alone in first just 30 days out. She’ll have the resources to increase that lead. Peabody came within 300 votes of Courser in the 2014 primary, and already has the support of the Dick DeVos-backed Great Lakes Education Project. I’d look for more big endorsements soon.”

Michigan’s 82nd District encompasses all of Lapeer County, and has a Republican base of 58 percent,  according to Target Insyght data. Because of this, conventional wisdom would suggest that the Republican candidate, whomever he or she should be, will safely win the general election.

However, should Todd Courser somehow defy the odds and sneak through the 11-way Republican primary, Lapeer County Republicans might have second thoughts and take their chance to make history, either by supporting the Democratic nominee or staying home next March.

“Much like the residents of Elm Street and the Campers at Crystal Lake, the Lapeer County Courser monster just won’t go away. It’s the sequel nobody wanted, and it’s coming to a ballot box near you this November,” said Brian Began, Elections & Research Director of Grassroots Midwest. “This is not a conventional primary, but a 30-day sprint. Courser has a steep climb, but should he convince enough of his allies to support him in November, Republicans could again be dealing with a nightmare scenario.”

"The good news for Todd Courser is that everyone's heard of him -- 95% name ID for a former state rep. is unheard of. The very bad news is that no one likes him,” said Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght. “Courser relentlessly courted media coverage during the scandal, releasing colorful Facebook posts and doing national TV. It's clear that all the attention has come with a price -- Courser now looks unelectable in this field."

Based on analysis of historical data, Grassroots Midwest believes 13,500 will likely vote in the GOP primary -- meaning a candidate could win with as few as 2,000 votes. Between Courser’s loyalists, mischievous Democrats, and the other ten Republican candidates, the risk of Courser sneaking through the November primary seems realistic, if only he could convince more people who like him to actually vote for him. There is clearly a risk of a nightmare scenario for the GOP in this race.

This automated survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan’s 82nd state House district was taken September 29-October 1. The margin of error is 5.7 percent. Crosstabs and demographic data are available upon request.

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Inside Michigan Politics (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

Grassroots Midwest (http://grassrootsmidwest.com) is Michigan's first and only bipartisan grassroots advocacy firm. Our clients include corporations, associations, non-profits, labor unions, and political candidates, and we have a relentless focus on one outcome for our clients: winning.

Target Insyght (http://target-insyght.com) is a strategic consulting, public opinion and market research firm created to offer its clients a full spectrum of professional capabilities.

Brandenburg Out to Early Lead in Three-Way Matchup in New ​Inside Michigan Politics/ Revsix/Change Media Group MI-10 GOP Primary Poll

Pavlov, LaFontaine in Dead Heat for 2nd place, but 43% Undecided

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                     Contact: Susan J. DemasIMP Publisher, 517-420-6779, susan@sjdemas.com                Dennis Darnoi, Revsix Analyst, 248-763-3655, dennis.darnoi@revsixdata.com            Amanda Stitt, Change Media CEO, 517-420-2833,  amanda@changemediagroup.com

State Sen. Jack Brandenburg (R-Harrison Twp.) has jumped to an early lead to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp.) in Republican primary for the 10th Congressional District.

In a three-way matchup, Brandenburg had 27% of the vote, while state Sen. Phil Pavlov (R-St. Clair) and state Rep. Andrea LaFontaine (R-Columbus Twp.) have 15% apiece in a new Inside Michigan Politics/Revsix/Change Media Group poll. But 43% are still undecided.

The poll also tested a seven-way matchup, where Brandenburg (17%), Pavlov (15%) and LaFontaine (12%) were the top three finishers. Brandenburg and Pavlov are in a statistical tie, with LaFontaine not far behind. The other potential candidates tested were: Former state Sen. Alan Sanborn (R-Richmond) with 7%; former Rep. Pete Lund (R-Shelby Twp.) with 5%; state Rep. Todd Courser (R-Lapeer) with 3%; and Clinton Township Clerk Kim Meltzer with 2%. In the seven-way matchup, 41% were undecided.

“Our poll clearly establishes who the three strongest Republican candidates in the M-10 are today: Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov. But with four in 10 voters undecided, this race is still wide open. There’s a path to victory for any of the top three contenders -- but there’s still room for other Republicans to mount a strong campaign and emerge victorious on August 2, 2016,” said Susan J. Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics.

The M-10 encompasses both Detroit suburbs and the more rural “Thumb” area, including Macomb, St. Clair, Lapeer, Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola counties. IMP rates the district as having a 55.3% GOP base, which is why IMP/Revsix/Change Media Group tested the Republican field.

"This poll clearly demonstrates where this race is headed, as well as identifies the strengths and weaknesses that each of the three top campaigns will have to contend with. The people of the 10th Congressional can expect a very long, drawn out and extremely expensive race to succeed Congresswoman Miller," said Dennis Darnoi, Director of Analytics and Research for Revsix.

In the three-way matchup, LaFontaine doesn’t have an advantage with female voters over her male counterparts. In fact, 46% of women are undecided vs. 38% of men.

Looking at geography, Brandenburg’s strength comes from his home county of Macomb, while Pavlov does well in his home county of St. Clair, as well as Sanilac County. LaFontaine is strongest in St. Clair, not her home county of Macomb.

In terms of ideology, no one has emerged as the “conservative candidate,” which can be critical in a GOP primary. All three candidates draw support from all wings of the Republican party (liberal, moderate, conservative and very conservative).

"Senator Brandenburg seems to be in a strong position, but based on the high levels of support from liberal Republicans all the way to very conservative Republicans, much of that is probably based on name recognition in Macomb -- which is the majority of this district. This field has the potential to grow like a Republican Presidential primary field. The larger the field grows, the better chance Representative LaFontaine has of coming out of next August's primary -- especially if she is the only women in the field,” said Amanda Stitt, CEO of Change Media Group.

Revsix (http://revsixdata.com/) is a data and analytics firm in Pontiac. Lansing-based Change Media Group (http://www.changemediagroup.com/) provides digital consulting to candidates, organizations and businesses. IMP (http://insidemichiganpolitics.com/) is the most nationally-cited political newsletter in Michigan and was founded by Bill Ballenger in 1987.

The automated survey of 467 likely 2016 Republican voters in the M-10 was taken on March 29 and 30. The margin of error is 4.5%. Crosstabs are available upon request.

 

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IMP/Revsix/Change Media MI-7 Poll   

March 29-30, 2015

 

INTRO:    Hello, I’m calling from Inside Michigan Politics.  We are conducting a quick, 5-question survey about the Republican primary to replace Congresswoman Candice Miller, who has decided to retire in 2016.  It should only take a moment of your time. The survey is only 5 questions. It’s important that your opinion is heard and your responses are confidential, so let’s get started.

 

Question 1:    How old are you?      

Press 1 if you are 18 to 29                          1.23%

 Press 2 if you are 30 to 45                         4.10%

 Press 3 if you are 46 to 65                         31.97%

 Press 4 if you are 66 and older                  62.70%

 

Question 2:    What is your gender?    

Press 1 for Male                        51.36%

Press 2 for Female                    48.64%        

 

Question 3:    Would you describe yourself as liberal, moderate, conservative or very conservative?

Press 1 if you consider yourself liberal                    4.88%

Press 2 if you consider yourself moderate              23.99%

Press 3 if you consider yourself conservative         50.11%

Press 4 if you consider yourself very conservative  21.02%

 

Question 4:     There are several candidates considering running for the seat left open by the retirement of Congresswoman Candice Miller.  If the candidates were Alan Sanborn, Phil Pavlov, Andrea LaFontaine, Pete Lund, Kim Meltzer, Jack Brandenburg and Todd Courser, who would you support?

Press 1 for Alan Sanborn               7.1%

Press 2 for Phil Pavlov                 14.5%

Press 3 for Andrea LaFontaine    11.9%

Press 4 for Pete Lund                    4.5%

Press 5 for Kim Meltzer                 1.8%

Press 6 for Jack Brandenburg       16.9%

Press 7 for Todd Courser               2.7%

Press 8 for Undecided                   40.6%

 

Question 5:     If the candidates to replace Congresswoman Candice Miller were Jack Brandenburg, Andrea LaFontaine and Phil Pavlov, who would you support?

Press 1 for Jack Brandenburg            27.2%

Press 2 for Andrea LaFontaine          14.7%

Press 3 for Phil Pavlov                       15.1%

Press 4 for Undecided                        42.9%